Monday, October 11, 2010

Thank NJ Gov Chris Christie for Likely GOP Governors Majority in 2010 Elections?

Photo Credit - Flickr Creative Common
When voters go to the polls on November 2, to cast votes in the mid-term elections for House and Senate candidates, they will also be deciding the governorships in 37 states and 2 territories. Many political pundits are predicting the GOP will have a majority of the 50 gubernatorial seats when the 2010 election is over. Likely voter polling indicates the GOP could turn several current Democrat held governor seats to Republican. This is being driven by stand-still economic growth, high unemployment, and massive deficit spending being blamed on Democrat liberal ideology and progressive policy.

Up for decision in November are 18 gubernatorial seats currently held by Republicans, 1 currently held by a Republican turned Independent to run in the 2010 senate race in FL, and 20 currently held by Democrats. There are 6 incumbent Republicans running for reelection – AK, AZ, ID, NE, TX, and UT – and 8 incumbent Democrats running for reelection – AR, IL, IA, MA, MD, NH, OH, and U.S. Virgin Islands.

In 25 races there is no incumbent running due to retirement, term-limits met, and 1 incumbent Republican governor defeated in the Nevada primary. In these 25 races, 13 have leaving Republican governors – AL, CA, CT, FL, GA, Guam, HI, MN, NV, RI, SC, SD, and VT – and 12 have leaving Democrat governors – CO, KS, ME, MI, NM, NY, OK, OR, PA, TN, WI, and WY.

As of October 7, Rasmussen reflects an “Election 2010: Gubernatorial Scorecard” post-election results for the 50 state gubernatorial make-up nationally as 28 Republicans, 15 Democrats, and 7 toss-ups. The toss-ups states are FL, MN, NH, OR, RI, VT, and WI. Currently Rasmussen predicts, “ Hawaii is the only state with a Republican governor that is considered likely to elect a Democrat in November. But seven states now headed by Democrats – IA, KS, ME, OK, PA, TN, and WY – are seen as likely GOP pickups.”

Rasmussen foresees 17 states as solid Republican - – AL, AK, AR, IA, ID, KS, ME, MI, NE, NV, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, and WY – and 5 states as lean Republican – GA, IL, NM, OH, and PA. For the Democrats, they foresee 2 states as solid Democrat - HI, NY – and 6 states as lean Democrat – AR, CA, CO, CT, MA, and MD.

As of October 7, Cook Political reflects an incredible 18 states as toss-ups with 9 currently having a Republic governor – CA, CT, FL, GA, MN, NV, RI, TX, and VT – and 9 currently having a Democrat governor – IL, MA, MD, ME, NH, NM, OH, OR, and WI.

Cook Political also reflects 7 states now headed by Democrats as possible GOP pickups – IA, KS, MI, OK, PA, TN, and WY. They foresee 7 states as solid Republican – AK, ID, KS, NE, TN, UT, and WY – and 8 states as lean/likely Republican – AL, AZ, IA, MI, OK, PA, SC, and SD. They foresee 2 states as solid Democrat – AR and NY – and 2 states as lean/likely Democrat – HI and CO.

As of October 7, Real Clear Politics predicts there are 7 toss-up states – FL, IL, MA, MN, OH, OR, and VT. They foresee 8 states as safe Republican – AK, AL, ID, KS, OK, TN, SD, and UT- and 11 states as lean/likely Republican – AZ, GA, IA, ME, MI, NM, PA, NV, SC, TX, and WI. They foresee no states as safe Democrat and foresee 9 states as lean/likely Democrat – AR, CA, HI, CO, CT, MD, NH, NY, and RI.

One of the leading political analysts nationally is Director, U.Va. Center for Politics, Larry Sabato. As of September 30, his Crystal Ball is saying there are 9 toss-up states – CA, GA, FL, MA, ME, MN, OH, RI, and VT. He foresees 3 states as safe Republican – AK, KS, and UT – and 16 states as lean/likely Republican – AL, AZ, ID, IA, IL, MI, NV, NM, OK, OR, PA, SC, SD, TN, TX, and WI. Larry foresees no state as safe Democrat and 7 states as lean/likely Democrat – AR, CO, CT, HI, MD, NH, and NY.

Before the 2010 mid-term election, our 50 states have 24 with Republican governors and 26 with Democrat governors. There are 13 states with no 2010 gubernatorial elections – DE, LA, IN, KY, MN, MO, NC, ND, NJ, VA, WA, and WV. Of the 37 states with a 2010 gubernatorial election, many in the political know believe the Republicans will pick up at least 7-8 governorships that are now Democrat and up to as many as 11-12. Many are predicting 31-35 states will have Republican governors in 2011.

Perhaps they are basing this on the two gubernatorial elections in 2009 that resulted in both turning from Democrats to Republicans - NJ Governor Chris Christie and VA Governor Bob McDonnell – in what were considered majority Democratic states.

Governor Christie has proven out to be a highly visible positive example of a politician for fiscally concerned voters nationwide. He has taken a tough stand on cutting spending and not raising taxes as the way to solve NJ’s budget deficits. Republican and Independent voters have taken pleasure in Governor Christie hitting back hard at what many feel is a liberally biased, double-standard backing mainstream media without pussyfooting around them.

He is loved by taxpayers for standing up to the powerful teacher union in NJ with reality and tough love. He is not allowing what many see as continued public employees’ entitled demands at taxpayer’s expense that have never really been affordable. Governor Christie is an example for voters in all political parties of someone who came into office to get a job done as promised in his campaign.

Governor Christie has shown a much needed view from reality, whether politically correct or not, that taxpayers from a cross section of America respect and admire. Voters have watched him instill faith in the political process by being a “mean what I say and say what I mean” politician actually living up to his campaign promises.

He serves as a breath of fresh air to many turned off by the void of true leadership strength in governing. He is a light at the end of the tunnel for those that want a smaller, more affordable, and more accountable government at all levels.

Governor Christie is a big draw on the campaign stump for fellow GOP gubernatorial candidates. For many Republicans and Independents, Governor Christie is in fact emerging as a favorite 2012 presidential GOP candidate. Many want him to bring his same political will and brashness to Washington. He has consistently indicated he has no plans to run.

Many wish Governor Christie was the governor of their state. More and more voters want spending cuts instead of tax hikes as fiscal policy to reduce their state budget deficit. They want a governor with the will to make that a reality. They can’t have Governor Christie, but they can vote for the Republican in their gubernatorial election in hopes they will uphold the Christie fiscal accountability example. Many are predicting voters will. Most believe a Democrat governor will continue tax and spend policies.

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